New Year Same Problems But New Predictions

Fare thee well 2009. As we all settle in for the new year ahead I am reminded that after the celebrations fade, the alcohol has dried up and the general euphoria diminishes most of us are brought back to the sobering reality that we all still have the same problems trailing us from the previous year. I'm still unemployed and on top of all that my PSP broke. More specifically the UMD drive broke in that it won't stay shut when you close it. And that really sucks because that was the only gaming device I brought with me while I am on vacation. Yes, I'm still in Florida and I'm still 2200 or so miles away from my PS3. Bummer.

Now I don't bother with making new year's resolutions because I know myself better than that and I know that I rarely stick with them to begin with. So rather than lie to myself saying I will or will not do something in the coming year I simply acknowledge my shortcomings up front and don't bother. Although if I were to have any one of them would most likely be I will not buy any more games until I beat the ones I already own, but we all know that's not going to happen especially with the scheduled line up for this beginning quarter alone! As it stands right now I have fourteen games for PS3 on my backlog.

Now I have seen a lot of people doing top ten lists and decade lists, etc. You'll be happy to know that I won't waste your time telling you what games I felt were the best this year, or what game deserves GotY recognition. The vast majority of games I bought still remain unplayed so I literally have nothing good or bad to say about them. So to make a list would just be stupid and ill-founded. However I will make some predictions (because everyone likes predictions) about the gaming industry this year because when it's Dec. 31, 2010 I want to pull up this blog and see how close (or far) I was in my predictions. Plus it's satisfying as hell to get one right and be able to prove to people that you called it way back before it happened I've consulted my crystal ball and here are my predictions for what I believe will happen this year in gaming:

Nintendo:

Nintendo announces Wii HD at E3 this year slated for release holiday 2010 which will inevitably serve two functions: 1. To keep Nintendo's sales on top for this generation by giving Wii a nice sales boost and new incentive for people to buy the aging 4-year-old system, and 2. To phase out the non-HD Wii and finally join the HD-era without having to release a totally new system.

DSiXL will continue the DS's dominance in the handheld market but will ultimately be the last iteration of that system, as Nintendo is hard at work on the DS's successor.

The next Nintendo handheld will be significantly more powerful and go along the same lines as the PSP Go in offering strictly digital distribution for its software thus eliminating cartridge-based media for good. This saves Nintendo money and ends up being a more profitable delivery system. It will not be announced until TGS 2010 at earliest and E3 2011 at latest.

Microsoft:

360 will be coming up on its fifth year and has successfully outlived the original Xbox by one full year! And aside from a handful of exclusives there is not much to get excited over; MS knows this. The 360 has hit the ceiling in terms of technology. That's why I foresee MS further slashing the price of the 360 by holiday 2010 by another $50 as they attempt to stay relevant amid increasing sales of both the Wii and PS3.

Natal releases at a $49.99 MSRP thereby making up for the $50 reduction on the actual 360 itself.

Rumblings of the 360's successor will begin towards year's end and continue on through next year leading up to E3 2011. That's when I believe MS will announce their next console as they can't afford to languish another year as the 360 looks upon its sixth birthday.

Sony:

PS3 continues its sales momentum and ultimately "catches up" to the 360 in terms of total world-wide sales by year's end; there will not be another price cut for the PS3 at all this year simply due to the fact that Sony continues to lose (at present) $36 per console sold.

PSP Go continues to struggle at retail and given this fact Sony is forced to lower the price of the handheld to help bolster sales and move units. Meanwhile traditional PSP units will continue to outsell and outpace Go units despite the price cut.

Sony's motion wand thingy will like-wise release at $49.99 MSRP and proves to be slightly more successful than Natal.

PS3 was future-proofed more than the 360 and will remain true to Sony's "10-year life cycle" pledge. Unfortunately mounting pressures from MS's next console will also start rumors circulating about the PS4.

Motion controls on both systems flourish for a short period but ultimately their novelty fizzles out for hardcore applications and instead they are relegated to more "mainstream" conventions and games. Meaning you're not going to be playing a Halo or Uncharted 3 with motion controls in the years upcoming but more party-like games very much like the Wii.

Miscellaneous:

OnLive will release in the second half of the year and will not have that significant of an impact like many people think it will due to how new a concept it is. It will have a small, dedicated, almost niche following but it will not overtake traditional console or PC gaming by storm overnight.

So there you have it. Those are my predictions for the upcoming year. Overall I feel this year is going to be more exciting than 2009 was because there is so much happening and a slew of great games slated for the entire year. What do you think? Agree? Disagree? Am I full of it or do you see some of the same moves happening? Let me know! Happy New Year, everyone!